1. Romania, like most of the countries in Europe and in the world is going through difficult times. This is not surprising. The Romanian economy is now deeply integrated, especially with the other European economies. The consequence is that the impact of the world crisis has been transmitted rapidly and strongly to the country. Hopes that Romanian could be insulated from the crisis have gone away.
2. Nevertheless, I think that something specific can be done in Romania, not only as damage limitation exercise but also in order to prepare the ground for a full participation of Romania in the recovery process when it will start.
I will address four crucial issues in my view:
a. the reputation deficit of Romania;
b. the budgetary policy;
c. the IMF and EU support;
d. the euro perspective.
a)- First, the reputational deficit.
Most of the time, Romania is included as a full member of a “sub-league” club of the countries which are considered as presenting high risks. This is done by market commentators, rating agencies and the international press.
In my view this is wrong, unjustified and detrimental for the Romanian economy. The problems of Romania are serious but Romania is better off than the other countries.
Just a few examples: The Romanian public debt is extremely low. The peak of the budgetary deficit has been nothing more the approximately 5% in 2008, which is well below about has been observed in other countries. The current account deficit is (too) high relatively well financed until now and below the level of the others.
The demonstration has been done that the growth potential is high in this country. The inflation performance is good if we accept the fact that the price increases in 2008 have essentially been determined by the world prices of energy and commodities.
Other arguments are certainly a
