Romania is expected to witness strong growth rates in terms of population assets and financial debts, but will continue to lag behind other neighbouring markets, according to a survey conducted by the UniCredit Group.
Domestically, the financial wealth of the population is predicted to rise at annual rates of 19% until 2009, compared with an average rate of 12% in Central and Eastern European countries. Financial debts will increase at an average annual rate of 34% against the 19% rate predicted by UniCredit economists for the entire CEE region.
However, the cumulated financial wealth of Romanian households is expected to account for 29% of the GDP within the next three years, while in Bulgaria, Turkey and Slovenia the indicator will stand at 50% and exceed 70% in the case of Poland.
Consecutively, population financial debts will climb to 21% of the GDP, compared with 23% in Poland and 29% in Hungary.
Rozalia Pal, senior economist with UniCredit Romania, believes that the Romanian population will have a bigger appetite for consumer loans during this period, with a growing desire to acquire white goods. Under the circumstances, the net wealth of the population (the difference between financial assets and contracted loans) is expected to go down further, from 11% of the GDP registered late last year to 8% in 2009. For CEE countries, the net wealth of the population is estimated to fall slightly, from 40% in 2006 to 39% by 2009. "Net population wealth will therefore be sensitive to shocks caused by income decreases or interest rate rises," warns Pal.
The low level of net population wealth in the GDP is not a problem in itself, but calls for increased caution on the part of banks and monetary authorities in terms of lending, believes Fabio Mucci, UniCredit Group economist for CEE.
Financial assets per capita stood at 1,080 euros in
