A rise in the price of citrus fruit and vegetable oil pushed the annual inflation rate to 8.63% in March, the highest since December 2005, according to the National Statistics Institute data.

NBR forecast inflation at 8.3% in March, which should have been this year's peak. However, the figure released yesterday was worse than analysts had expected - 8.5% for March. Under the circumstances, some market analysts now expect inflation to pick up speed over the coming months, which would also induce the need to continue to tighten the monetary policy. NBR will debate the key interest on RON during the meeting scheduled for May 6, and will also approve the first-quarter inflationary report, which will include an updated 24-month forecast.

Prices rose by 0.67% in March after a 0.7% jump the month before. Growth drivers were fruit, especially citrus fruit, whose prices rose by almost 6.8%, as well as vegetable oil. The price of vegetable oil went up by 3.9% in March alone, which took the cumulated price hike to 5.5% since the end of last year. Energy prices stagnated, given that no adjustments were operated, after natural gas had become 8.4% more expensive in February.

Service prices also increased in March, especially transport and telecommunications where hikes came close to 2%. The trend was influenced by the depreciation of the RON in March, given that many prices are based on the euro.

The inflationary outburst in March came amid an unfavourable international context. Grain prices continued to increase worldwide, and the price per oil barrel reached an all time high. After the RON lost about 2% against the euro in March, the rise in prices on foreign markets had even worse implications on the domestic market.

Following the surprise surge in March, analysts have different views on the inflationary trend.

"Looking ahead, the likelih