In an exclusive interview for HotNews.ro, a London City financial expert discusses the current situation of emerging economies, the S&P ratings and the Central Banks' decisions.

HotNews.ro: Where do you see Romania at this moment, compared to other countries in the Central and Southern Europe, in the midst of the international financial crisis? Recent analysis - such as the ones by Stratfor and Reiffeisen Zentralbank, indicate that the next country to live the same situation as Hungary is Romania. Is really Romania the next one to fall?

Justin Patrie: Don't know if I'd say the absolute next to fall, but if we're talking about emerging economies, including Central Europe, Romania is a high risk country. Certainly, there is the risk Romania will have to turn to IMF and the EU for aid. Romania belongs, alongside with Latvia, Estonia, Bulgaria and Ukraine, as very high risk countries in the emerging Europe context, there is a severe capital shortage on the global market and countries with high degree of financing liabilities on short term - which include Romania - will have to turn to IMF and the EU.

HotNews.ro: Will the S&P rating downgrade to BB+ deepen the crisis for Romania?

Justin Patrie: Yes, it will. A single rating downgrade it's not a problem in itself but, as you say, it moved from investment grade to below investment grade and that is problematic, because a lot of institutional investors, hedge funds, pension funds, have mandate not to invest in below the investment grade instruments. That could include Romanian sovereign instruments being not allowed to be invested in. That will make it more expensive for the Romanian government and Romanian corporates to borrow from the international capital markets and that will (deepen) the problem with the shortage of capital in Romania.

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