The growth pace of lending activity in Romania will slow down by 20% by yearend, and by 15% by the end of 2009, said Michael Massourakis (photo), senior economist of Alpha Bank.
“We see a steep decline of lending growth pace in the last quarter, especially in the mortgage loans segment, which is more affected than the system’s average”, said Alpha Bank representative.
Economic growth will slow down to 3.9% next year, Massourakis said. For 2008, Alpha Bank sees Romania’s economic growth at 8.5%.
After slowing down to a 3.9% growth pace in 2009, the advance estimated for gross domestic product in 2010 is 4.7%, said Massourakis, at EU-COFILE seminar that took place in Sinaia.
Meanwhile, the advance of lending will temper down, from a real growth rate of 52% last year, to 20% this year and to 15% next year, following an uptrend in 2010, up to a 21% pace.
Senior economist of Alpha Bank said that in the midst of global financial crisis, a positive aspect is the shrinking of current account deficit of Romania, which can contribute to a “stabilization of economy”.
According to Massourakis, Romania’s fiscal deficit “will be around 3%of GDP this year” and mentioned that foreign analysts were reticent to the initial approval of 50% pay rise in education system, in the context of deep external unbalances and considering that developed economies are heading towards recession.
Translated by Camelia Oancea
