Bankers have different insights regarding this year’s evolution of the currency exchange rate: some see a permanent downslide throughout the following months, forecasting a 4.2lei/euro rate in March and 3.8 lei/euro at yearend, while others expect a freefall of the local currency down to record 4.5 units/euro rate at the end of March and 4.70 lei/euro in third quarter this year.
Scenario I: 4.2 lei/euro in March
Local currency may stop from falling in the coming months, down to 4.2 lei against euro in March and down to 3.8 lei at yearend, although the ‘millstone’ choking the leu will remain, the budget plan for 2009 being a key factor, reads a study published yesterday by Raiffeisen.
“In the following period, the pressures for leu’s freefall will remain, especially if the local currencies in the region will embrace the same path versus euro”, said the analyst Martin Stelzeneder, in Raiffeisen Bank’s study.
He also estimates that in June, a euro will be traded at 4 lei, while in September the single European currency may be quoted at 3.95 lei.
“The government has not yet completed the budget plan for 2009 and it is still seeking for measures to reduce the budget deficit which is now at 5% of gross domestic product in 2008. In fact, everybody is waiting to see how the government will manage to chop the budget deficit. Therefore, the budget plan for this year may be a core factor in the evolution of currency exchange rate in the coming period”, reads Raiffeisen study.
Leu fell dramatically since the early trades of this year, from 4.0296 lei/euro in the first session of the year to 4.3025 rate registered yesterday.
The national currency dropped yesterday to 4.3473 lei/euro in the inter-bank currency market, however starting 15:15 in the afternoon, the leu recovered to 4.30 lei/euro, most likely due to the intervention of the cent
