The price of “black gold” fell threefold since 2008 peak, down to below 40 dollars/barrel, both on sagging demand and financial crisis.
One of the positive aspects of the record levels hit by oil prices last year is certainly the public discussion that this triggered over issues like supply security and the changeover to renewable energy sources, according to Erste Group analysts.
A switch to alternative energy sources they say, would also promote peace, because it would help to avert the growing risk of war over resources aside from being beneficial to the environment.
However, Erste Group analysts point out that the longer the oil price stays in the range around USD 40 and lower, the higher and faster will supply in the future become scarcer, because investment and exploration programs will be postponed or cancelled at such prices.
"The era of cheap oil is in any case coming to an end, as easily and inexpensively built-up reserves are gradually being depleted", states Ronald Stöferle (photo) , oil analyst at Erste Group.
The much higher dependence on state-owned oil groups and the now very small share in production and reserves of private-sector oil groups also points to rising oil prices over the long term.
The structural problems of the oil industry were created by the failure to take action for a long time, and now we will increasingly start to feel the effects, Stöferle explained.
The precise point at which the maximum rate of global petroleum extraction will be reached or exceeded cannot be forecasted. The dependence on giant oil fields and the decreasing production in many major oil-producing nations such as Mexico, Norway and the US seem to be clear signals though.
"The fact that the extraction capacities of international oil corporations have generally declined in the past ten years – at steeply rising prices,
