Retail lending slightly rebounded in March, compared with January and February when loan sellers lied idle. If this rebound is stimulated with lower interests, the banking market could end the year with a slight increase, says Steven van Groningen, Raiffeisen Bank chairman.
"March was different than January and February, when nothing happened. The business picked up, even though at a lower level compared with last September and an interest in loans is visible. After all, if you don't lend, you cannot justify an infrastructure of hundreds of branches and our ambition is to grant loans."
The banker believes that even though adjustments in some sectors were as high as 40% in the first quarter compared with 2008, that does not necessarily mean the entire year will be like this.
However, he says that the agreement with the IMF, the statement signed by the major banks in Vienna, or the money from the banks' minimum reserves to be freed up by the NBR, do not necessarily mean that lending will be resumed in full gear.
"We cannot expect lending to revert to September 2008 levels tomorrow, because there is no simple solution. It is not enough to inject liquidity on the market, or to cut interests. Small steps need to be taken on several fronts and the beginning of a trend created, because abrupt moves are dangerous and encourage speculation. The rebound of the market depends a great deal on the sentiment, on the client's behaviour. Exaggerations were made in the past, when demand was relying very much on the future, on expected incomes, but today people have gone to the other extreme and even those that have money would rather wait than buy something. Today much fewer people come to the (banking) office today and even fewer qualify because of the higher risk."
After the improvement in the sovereign risk perception as a result of the agreement with
