The perspectives of the global economy remain "unusually uncertain", warns the World Bank. The institution has negatively revised its prognoses regarding the economic growth in 2009, forecasting a decrease of 4% of the GDP in the case of Romania, which confirms once more the recession. This new unfavorable prognosis, published by the World Bank (WB) at the end of last week revises the one in February, when the experts indicated an economical growth of 0-2% for Romania in 2009. The decrease of 4% of the GDP advanced by WB is similar to the European Commission forecast, while the IMF predicts a negative trend of the Romanian economy of 4.1%.
The good news for the Finance Minister, Gheorghe Pogea (photo), is that Romania's GDP will increase by 0.5% in 2010 and by 2.5% in 2011. The current account deficit should reach 8.4% of the GDP in 2009, compared to 12.4% of the GDP last year, and it should reach 7.5% in 2010 and then climb back to 8,7% in 2011.
GREAT POWERS
The experts of the institution predict an economic contraction of 4.5% for the euro-zone this year, followed by an increase of 0.5% in 2010. They had previously indicated a collapse of 2.7% in 2009 and a progress of 0.9% next year. The GDP of the United States, the largest economy in the world, will fall this year by 3% but will increase by 1.8% in 2010, according to the WB. As far as the major emerging economies, the WB report offers optimistic prospects for China and India, but significantly reduces the forecast for Russia and Brazil.
Thus, the WB forecasts a growth of 7.2% for China in 2009 (from 6.5%), and of 5.1% for India (from 4%). On the other hand, Russia will face a decrease of 7.5% of the GDP this year, versus a previous estimate of 4.5%. The World Bank has called for "vigilance" in developing the exit strategies, which will gradually remove the monetary and expansiona
