After an economic contraction of 8.8% of GDP in the three months through June, a 10% YoY slump in the third quarter is not excluded, according to analysts interviewed by Wall-Street.
It is still risky to expect a sustainable economic growth in 2010
The economy will continue to have a poor performance in the third quarter, according to Daniel Daianu who doesn’t exclude the possibility of even two-digit contraction.
“I expect the economy to continue its downward trend in the third quarter and even at a faster pace. However, in the final quarter, we may see a slight stabilization, depending on the economic performance of the countries we export to, such as Germany or France”, economist Daniel Daianu told Wall-Street.
Romania’s economic contraction stood at 8.8% in second quarter versus record 9.3% growth a year earlier, data from National Institute of Statistics show.
“It is too early and risky to say there is a high possibility that GDP would return in the positive territory in 2010, or if it will be a sustainable growth”, said Daianu.
On the other hand, the second-quarter economic contraction stood at 1.2% (seasonally adjusted), versus first quarter and in line with the initial projections of National Institute of Statistics.
Growth engines of Romanian economy
Daniel Daianu shortlisted the main factors that influence Romanian economy and that could be the keys to recovery.
- Lending and lending interests charged by credit institutions
- European funds
- High dependence to the performance of the economies in the countries we export to
- Performance of the growth engines of the economy (for example construction).
