It is riskier to believe that the crisis is over when it actually is not than to expect it to last longer when it actually ends, believes Steven van Groningen Raiffeisen Bank chairman.
"Many are pinning their hopes on the third quarter, but if they are not confirmed, the first quarter of 2010 will be completely different. I am not convinced we are seeing all the effects of the crisis and we can say 'the worst is behind us', and in case the crisis continues, it would not be out of the question to see consolidation deals on various markets, including the banking sector, where there is a capacity that needs to be reduced."
After all, the financing of acquisitions could be the main destination of some applications for new loans in the corporate sector, because no investments are being made in new production facilities or real estate, either, any more.
"It is obvious that transactions, opportunities for consolidation are being sought on the market. The crisis, however, was not harsh enough or long enough to force such moves. Many have survived until now on lower sales, on cost cutting and only if their business reaches the absolute minimum and they lose all hope will they be ready to sell," Van Groningen says.
As for the coming months, he says one cannot overlook the political situation: "Efforts will be made in the fourth quarter to avoid problems, but the big question is what will happen in the first quarter of next year
Raiffeisen's boss believes that the main lesson of the crisis, especially as far as banks and their clients are concerned, is that it is not wise to take on debt to the maximum by trying to manage risks that at some point become unmanageable.
"Banks in Romania should no longer rely on refinancing from abroad and it is important for us to be more balanced in terms of the loan/deposit ratio; the lesson for companies is t
