Codrut Pascu, managing partner of Roland Berger, says weak players will continue to disappear from the market next year, because the economic revival will not be felt sooner than the second half of 2010, whilst many companies have yet to make strategic decisions.
This is how managers of the largest companies see the Romanian economy after one year of crisis, when they had to consider as much as three scenarios to cope with market changes: at least one tough year is ahead, which will not see companies rely on revenue increases. Moreover, the decline in consumer spending was tougher than managers had anticipated in 2008, reveals a study by consulting company Roland Berger Strategy Consultants.
The study was conducted this autumn in Central and Eastern Europe, and included the 200 biggest private and state-held companies on the Romanian market, whose turnover exceeded 100 million euros last year.
"There is no longer the same uncertainty as last year. It is clear that no revival will occur on the market in the second half of the year, and almost certainly not in the first half of 2010, either," says Pascu.
Managers are concerned about the consumption declines on the Romanian market, which have been steeper than they had anticipated in 2008. Even the fast moving consumer goods market saw declines and more pessimistic forecasts this year, after in 2008 big companies still bet on the market resisting the crisis, Pascu says. "On some of the projects we now have on the FMCG (fast moving consumer goods) market, we are at the third market scenario in the last year," he specifies.
The budget revisions and the cost-cutting programmes have been very common within large companies on the Romanian market, with more than half of them taking steps such as a freeze on hiring and on investments in development, because of the market decline.
However, Pas