"We're still analysing, we are still working on the evaluation", the IMF delegation chief Jeffrey Franks told journalists. IMF and European Commission officials are not making public yet the results of the discussions with the Romanian Government, patronages and the private sector reps. But there are a few essential ideas shaping the possible solutions of the evaluation mission. The main problem would obviously be the budget spending, including salaries and state subventions. On the other hand, patronages consider to have obtained a "silent confirmation" of the fact that the taxes and levies. They also found out that the IMF was considering a 1% economic increase for Romania in 2010.
Regarding the macro indicators, a first conclusion is that the deficit target remains unchanged for 2009. Additionally, Cartel Alfa representative Petru Dandea said that a renegotiation of the agreement cannot happen before December 6. An issue everybody agrees upon is that Romania would face a disaster in both the private and the public sector should the IMF decide not to send the next instalment. "We're still discussing about the political situation and the technical aspects and it is premature to say if we can or cannot deliver the next instalment in time. Clearly, the fact that we have a politically uncertain situation makes things a bit more difficult, no doubt, but we haven't met a final decision yet", Jeffrey Franks declared on Tuesday.
So the good news is that it has not been decided to postpone the next instalment. The bad news is that this decision stands a chance.
Romanian Business People Association Florin Pogonaru declared in the end of the meeting with the IMF: "What it is not said is practically 'everything depends on you'. There are no deadlines; there are Romanian political decision factors which decide for pour lives in a way or another, in