The annual inflation rate rose in November for the first time after eight consecutive months of decline, from 4.3% to 4.65%, in the context of a monthly increase of 0.67%, mainly caused by the advance in cigarette and fuels prices, shows data published by the National Institute of Statistics Institute (INS) on Friday.
The annual inflation entered a downward trend in March, and during 2009, in two consecutive months, July and August, prices reported monthly declines of 0.07% and, respectively, 0.19%. Under these circumstances, economic analysts say that BNR's chances to meet the inflation target at the end of this year - whose range is between 2.5% and 4.5% - dropped sharply after the data on the inflation rate in November shows a price growth above expectations. "According to our calculations, monthly inflation should be 0.1% in December, for the central bank to be within the inflation target range. There is no much chance, so we are expecting growth in food prices," says the head of Volksbank Romania's research department, Melania Hăncilă, quoted by NewsIn. She expects a 4.7% inflation at the end of this year, mentioning that a possible appreciation of the leu could not significantly influence economic operators, as long as there is no certainty for a sustainable strengthening of the national currency.
The chief economist of ING Bank Romania, Nicolae Alexandru Chidesciuc, also estimates an annual inflation above the range targeted by the BNR, given that further increases are expected on tobacco price, and on volatile prices, as well. "Chances are very slim if we look at the data for November and inflation is likely to rise to 4.8% in December, under these circumstances," said Chidesciuc.
At the same time, the chief economist of the BCR, Lucian Anghel, considers that the evolution of the exchange rate "will have a heavy word to say" in the evol
