The euro is about to end the year at close to 4.2 RON, and may even end up lower than that. Who anticipated the stability of the exchange rate in the last three quarters correctly six months ago?
Most analysts maintained exchange rate forecasts for December at 4.1 to 4.3 RON/EUR throughout the year, correctly anticipating that the NBR will not allow an additional depreciation of the exchange rate after the fast-paced depreciation in the autumn of 2008 and the first two months of this year.
On the other hand, exchange rate forecasts made in June or earlier went as far as down to 4 RON/EUR, coming from Florian Libocor, chief economist of BRD, and as far up as 4.5 RON, which was the level anticipated by Rozalia Pal, UniCredit Tiriac's chief economist and Nicolaie Chidesciuc, ING's chief economist, according to a poll conducted by BUSINESS Magazin this summer. In April, after the signing of the deal with the International Monetary Fund and the European Union, Chidesciuc even felt the euro might go up to 4.7 RON in six months.
The Turks at Credit Europe were most accurate in terms of forecast, given that they anticipated a 4.2-4.25 RON/EUR interval for the end of the year.
The National Bank calculated a 4.2119 RON/EUR exchange rate yesterday, 0.62 bani above the previous level. The average exchange rate since the beginning of the year has been 4.24 RON/EUR, that is 15% above the 2008 average.
"I kept in mind the positive economic signals emerging in the second half, not necessarily of a rebound, but rather of a confirmation that the economic contraction is past its worst. At the same time I envisioned a less tense political environment. What matters is that, overall, decision-makers with an impact on the social-economic and political environments have found resources to address the tensions and move on," says Florian Libocor, BRD SocGen
