* Indirect intervention of the Central Bank suspected
Yesterday, the NBR announced an exchange rate of 4.3523 lei for an Euro, a new historic high against the Romanian currency. Exchange houses were buying Euros at 4.15 lei, while selling them at 4.44 lei. These figures were similar to those of Monday, with demand for Euros dropping. However, on the interbank market, the Euro passed the 4.4 lei/Euros threshold, towards the end of the session.
On Monday, the leu had dropped to a historic low against the Euro, with the central bank announcing an exchange rate of 4.3257 lei / Euro, while the Central Bank was apparently absent from the market.
The analysts of ING Bank consider that after the Constitutional Court decided that the 15% pension cuts introduced in the new fiscal laws were unconstitutional, while leaving the 25% wage cuts unchanged, Romania is one step closer to receiving the next installment of the loan from the IMF. "We believe this will happen in the beginning of July and should support the national currency in the short term", analysts say.
Nicolaie Chidesciuc, the chief-economist of ING Bank said that the rise of the Euro could stop today, and added that the Central Bank could stop the depreciation of the leu if it wanted to.
"Whereas over the last two years, the NBR has strongly fought to prevent the depreciation of the leu, it is now allowing precisely that to happen, in spite of the messages that various of its officials were sending out", said Mr. Chidesciuc.
Georgiana Constantinescu, an analyst with Credit Europe Bank, yesterday said that the market was calmer yesterday. "Several players sold Euros yesterday. It is possible that the NBR intervened in the market directly, through other players, in order to weaken the Euro", he said. Analysts say that the foreign market climate is also harming the exchange rate. @N
