Financial giant BNP Paribas suggests Romania could switch to the euro as late as in 2024, i.e. nine years later than the Romanian authorities' convergence plan providing for the adoption of the euro in 2015.
This is the most pessimistic forecast of a financial group on Romania's euro adoption and comes amid frictions between Romania and France.
This amounts to a new blow aimed at Romania after the Paris government blocked Romania and Bulgaria's accession to the Schengen area.
France's BNP Paribas, one of the world's biggest banks by assets, is practically sending the convergence plan of the Romanian authorities straight to the bin, with 13 years being a much too long period for a credible strategy to be built.
The Government and the National Bank in particular see in the 2015 euro adoption a strong incentive for adopting reforms and this is why they have so far failed to reach a decision on revising the schedule, although the deterioration of macroeconomic indicators as a result of the economic crisis is making it unlikely for Romania to stick to its schedule.
Romania currently meets only the exchange rate stability criterion, with the exchange rate fluctuating only marginally in the last two years after the shock depreciation at the end of 2008, as well as the public debt criterion. Public debt is still below 40% of GDP, which compares with the 60% maximum level allowed. On the other hand, inflation, budget deficit and long-term interests are above the accepted limits.
Financial giant BNP Paribas suggests Romania could switch to the euro as late as in 2024, i.e. nine years later than the Romanian authorities' convergence plan providing for the adoption of the euro in 2015.
This is the most pessimistic forecast of a financial group on Romania's euro adoption and comes amid frictions between Romania and France.
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