* The GDP should find other engines for growth, such as industry or exports, Lucian Anghel considers
Next year, everything will depend heavily on our rate of absorption of European funds, said Lucian Anghel, the chief-economist of the Romanian Commercial Bank (BCR), as turnover in retail fell 4% after the first ten months of the year (gross series), compared to the similar period of 2010, and 4.5% respectively (adjusted series).
These drops led to a significant contraction of the GDP, said Mr. Anghel, who thinks that Romania "should find other sources for growth, such as industry or exports". He considers that this evolution of the turnover, which is noticeable when it comes to the GDP as well, was to be expected, as the drop in consumption was also a result of the raise of the VAT last year and of the implementation of the austerity measures by the government: "I don't expect this situation will improve in 2012 compared to 2011. The international context will cause us to follow the same negative trend that we do now".
Between January and October 2011, the drop in retail sales (with the exception of cars and motorbikes - gross series - was caused mostly by the drop in the sales of pharmaceutical, medical, cosmetic and perfumery products, as well as by the drop in sales of foodstuffs, drinks and tobacco in specialized stores, according to the National Statistics Institute.
Over the same period, turnover for retail (with the exception of cars and motorbikes) - adjusted series -, based on the number of working days and seasonality, decreased, mostly due to the drop in the prices of foods, drinks and retail sales of car fuel in specialized stores.
In October 2011, compared to the previous month, this ratio fell 2.7% (gross series) and 2% respectively (adjusted series).
* The hourly labor cost - on the rise
In the third quarter of
