Non-performing loans in the portfolios of our banks could reach a peak of 35% of the total volume of loans, economic analyst Florin Cîţu warns. In his opinion, the critical point of NPLs, in terms of the negative impact on the economy was reached last year, which can't be said about the peak, for which the rising trend will continue.
In a report published yesterday, ratings firm Fitch announced that it expects the deterioration of the assets of banks by the end of this year, as well as into the next. Key indicators of the domestic banking system had a negative evolution in the first nine months of 2013, against the firm's expectations, the report notes.
Florin Cîţu expressed his surprise at the fact that Fitch did not anticipate this year's dynamic of non-performing loans, given the difficult economic context. "Bank customers suffered from the crisis, due to the worsening of the economic conditions, compared to the period when they took out the loans. The only way this trend can be reversed is through the improvement of the economic context, which will not come in 2014, however, but a few years down the road", he said.
The reduction of the rate of non-performing loans through the improvement of the customers' payment behavior is hard to achieve, as the disposable income of households is lower than in 2008, and companies are facing an increasingly harsh and aggressive taxation, the economist stresses.
The alternative is for banks to achieve an efficient restructuring of loans granted, which is highly unlikely to happen, because the Romanian banking system in Romania is an oligopoly, rather than based on competition, says Florin Cîţu. "Romanian banks are protected by the NBR, as they are not truly at risk of default even if they were badly managed. Without the fear of default, there is no real motivation to achieve a real restructuring of the ba
