International Monetary Fund has transferred yesterday the first installment of the funding package of 5 bln euros, due to be received today by National Bank of Romania. However, IMF’s forecasts for Romania’s economic growth and unemployment rate are getting even bleaker at least for the coming two years.
"Even with help from the IMF, 2009 and 2010 will be difficult years."
Jeffrey Franks (photo), the IMF’s mission chief for Romania says that even with help from the IMF, 2009 and 2010 will be difficult years, expecting the growth to turn negative this year and near zero next year.
“Even with help from the IMF, 2009 and 2010 will be difficult years due to the lingering effects of the world downturn. But the government’s policies should allow Romania to avoid the worst effects of the crisis and to emerge with an economy that is both leaner and more competitive”, said Franks.
IMF expects Romania’s economic growth to bounce back to positive values in 2011, when it projects a 5% advance of GDP, after two years of consumption contraction and increase in jobless rates.
In 2010, the jobless rate is expected to increase further in Romania, IMF seeing the rate at 9.7%, namely 880,000 unemployed.
For 2011, when analysts see a steep turnaround in sight, the average unemployment rate would fall to 7.7%, according to IMF projections.
Average currency exchange rate will stay in the range of 4.8 lei/euro in 2010 and 2011
International Monetary Fund sees an average currency exchange rate of nearly 4.4 lei/euro in 2009 and 4.8 lei/euro next year and in 2011.
In the press release remitted by IMF announcing that the executive board has approved the 12.9 billion stand-by arrangement for Romania, the institution enclosed an annex with the forecasts related to the evolution of Romanian economy over the next 2 years.
Gross domestic pr
