Catalin Parvu, head of the local subsidiary of the Greek at Piraeus Bank, says he is optimistic about 2011 and expects a wide-scale resumption of lending, be it just because banks will be forced to boost their revenue base.
"We will see a lending rise, but it will be one-digit. We have also seen two-digit growth plans, but I don't think this is possible," says Parvu. The rise cannot be spectacular considering that 2011 starts off with even less signs of optimism than 2010, when the majority of forecasts indicated an around 2% economic growth. However, recent figures show that the result is more likely to be close to -2%, and now for 2011 most analysts only dare expect stagnation, or insignificant growth at best.
"We have the exports engine, which is working, but the other engine, domestic consumer spending, needs to be restarted, as well, where there is great potential at least to replace imports," Parvu says.
Under the circumstances, the first to see a rebound are corporate loans, both for exporters and for competitive small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Only later will financing for retail clients be revived, because there is a lag between the time companies see their businesses back on their feet and the time it is reflected in the wages paid and in an increase in the number of employees.
Catalin Parvu, head of the local subsidiary of the Greek at Piraeus Bank, says he is optimistic about 2011 and expects a wide-scale resumption of lending, be it just because banks will be forced to boost their revenue base.
"We will see a lending rise, but it will be one-digit. We have also seen two-digit growth plans, but I don't think this is possible," says Parvu. The rise cannot be spectacular considering that 2011 starts off with even less signs of optimism than 2010, when the majority of forecasts indicated an around 2% economic growth.
