* Analysts disagree with this prognosis
The Romanian National Central Bank (NBR) will keep inflation under control, despite the fact that the price of natural gas for industrial consumers has increased 10%, said Adrian Vasilescu, advisor to the Governor of the NBR: "It will be very difficult, but we will succeed in keeping inflation within the forecasted level of 5%". He said that even though some prices may increase due to the raise the tariff for natural gas produced domestically, effects in the industry will be mostly emotional: "Costs will be higher, but the issue is far more complex. Companies should find a way to adjust their costs, and cut some of them when others increase". The representative of the NBR also said that he also has an answer for those who would speculate this occurrence - the fact that the consumption rate remains negative.
After saying that in July, inflation will fall, as the basis effect will change, following last year"s VAT raise, Adrian Vasilescu considers that the increase in the price of natural gas for industrial consumers will generate a "brief, low intensity shock" on inflation.
The NBR"s confidence in itself is commendable, but the reality of the last four years has proven the opposite: that the NBR failed to meet any of its inflation targets, between 2007 and today. The main reasons were the rise in the price of food staples, and fuel.
* Liviu Voinea: "We will continue to have the highest inflation in the EU"
However, Liviu Voinea, the chairman of the Applied Economy Group (GEA), is far more pessimistic, and predicts that we will continue to have "the highest inflation rate in the EU" this year as well. He expects inflation to get close to 10% at the end of the year, as the increase in the price of gas for industrial consumers will have a significant effect on the consumer price index, of 1 to 2%
