The recession that includes the largest EU economies severely hit our economy; over 2 thirds of our commercial exchanges are with the EU and most of the Romanians working abroad use the single work market. In order for the recession not to widen and expand in Europe it is vital that the incentive package prepared by the European Commission not to fail.

This depends, among others, on two key factors. Thus, Germany’s engagements in this matter are enormously important, as it is the economic locomotive of the Union. If the budget will not be used more heavily by the federal government, the fall in GDP in Germany may exceed 3% in 2009. However, because the package of 200 billion euros has to be effective it is important for it to include new resources; we should not deal with statistical operations. In order to figure out the size of the European package we could compare it with the one scheduled in the U.S. Over the Ocean, a two-year package of about 1000 billion U.S. dollars is being prepared; the difference can be seen easily. Maybe an “Obama effect” will appear and awake some European leaders to reality.

For the first time after many decades, the volume of the world trade is estimated to be reduced in 2009. Trade will no longer be an engine for the economic activity in many countries of the world. The increased protectionism should be noted as a way that not a few countries use to combat the effects of the local crisis. The crisis, in fact, increases the tendency of many governments to protect the domestic firms and markets using restrictions. In the EU, this tendency is driven by profound currents that modify competitive hierarchies in the global economy.

Inflation is declining in the world. In some areas, there is even a threat of deflation, which could become true if the economic activity would face a strong decline. I