The state needs at least 3.5 billion euros to cover the budget deficit from foreign funding in the last three months of the year, but because of the political crisis it might be forced to find other solutions and thus turn the local banks for money and to NBR for support.
The dramatic effect of the Finance Ministry's return to the domestic market as it did at the beginning of the year would be the draining of the last available funds for lending to the private sector and implicitly the significant increase in interests in RON, which have reverted to over 10% anyway.
The absence of a negotiation partner at the Victoria Palace (Government's HQ) made the IMF postpone the assessment on which the 1.5 billion euro tranche scheduled for December depends, and the delay in putting in place a new government is threatening the 1 billion-euro tranche expected from the EU, as well. The political crisis also put on hold the Finance Ministry's plan to sell about 1 billion euros in eurobonds on the international market.
Adding these amounts up leads to a total of 3.5 billion euros that the budget will not be able to rely on as planned, so that expenses need to be cut at the end of the year and other local financing alternatives need to be found. President Traian Basescu warns that unless the new government is put in place soon, there is a risk that either pensions and salaries will not be paid in full, or investments will not be paid.
"There is a risk of not getting the next tranche of the loan if conditions are not met. I do not want this to happen," said the premier appointed, Lucian Croitoru, who is trying to get support from parties, even though he stands little chance of gaining that.
The only option the Government has to get money is to turn to the domestic market, but at much higher costs, analysts say.
"The financing solution can onl