The third quarter could see record economic growth for Romania - 10% or even higher, based on a peak contribution from the agricultural sector, which means GDP growth could come close to 9% at the end of the year, according to analysts estimates.
Romania has never seen such quarterly double-digit economic growth. ING Bank analysts have revised their forecast concerning the GDP's trend for the entire year by one percentage point, from 7.8% to 8.8%.
"Agriculture is expected to provide a significant contribution to the GDP formation in the third quarter, which is usually when the growth peak happens. Considering the volatility of this component, we would like to point out that we cannot rule out GDP growth of over 10% in the third quarter," says Nicolae Chidesciuc, senior analyst of ING Bank Romania.
He says he was taken by surprise by the contribution of the agricultural sector in the second quarter and as such ING's forecast was exceeded by almost one percent. The new annual growth estimate of agriculture for the third quarter is put at about 15%.
In addition, Chidesciuc believes that recent data about solid industrial output and strong retail sales are the first signs that confirm the forecast, as well as additional GDP growth in the third quarter.
ING feels the NBR should not be too worried about the speeding up of economic growth, considering it is mainly a case of extra supply.
ABN Amro, in turn, has revised its economic growth forecast for 2008 by no less than 0.9%, from 7.6% to 8.5%.
"We believe the new figure is quite conservative, as surprises may arise, because it is difficult to estimate agricultural yields," says Catalina Constantinescu, senior economist of ABN Amro Bank Romania. However, she anticipates a fast slowdown for 2009 to 4-4.5%.
An around 8.5% growth rate is also the forecast of the head of Banc
