The conflict in Georgia - a mistake on the part of President Saakashvili but also a disproportionate reaction of Russia - provides a strong lesson to the West. That is, it should have intervened earlier, more boldly and with solidarity, believes analyst Andrew Wilson of the European Council of Foreign Relations (ECFR) in statements made for HotNews.ro. Russia should receive a strong answer from Western powers who should drop the erroneous idea that Russia must not be provoked.
What has happened in Georgia factually is a question that analysts have been raising for the past week. They themselves reply that no precise answer is available. There are already certain myths growing up about the war. It needs to be clearly established just how many casualties there were, what weapons were used, whether war crimes were committed. A proper international enquiry is the way forward – rather than relying on Georgian or Russian PR, says Andrew Wilson, Senior Policy Fellor at the ECFR.
It is known who started it all - the first move was Georgia's - and who answered foolishly: the Russian answer was disproportionate, Wilson says.
Wilson agrees that Mikhail Saakashvili has fallen into a Russian trap, as Moscow has kept provoking him for the past year and had prepared its answer to the Georgian act. Saakashvili's decision was, however, a mistake, a rushed and reckless decision.
Some say there were mixed signals from the Americans, and Europe was divided. But Saakashvili should have known that. He may have thought that the Olympic Games were taking place and that Russia would not react or that in the context, as Russia would be the host of the next Olympic Games, it would not react. It is hard to know how he thought and it's hard to believe that he thought he would win - Wilson considers.
The fact is that this mistake would cost Saakas
