Only 11 people know a few hours in advance the value of the most awaited indicator in Romania, set to be released today: the GDP growth in the first quarter of 2011 against the fourth quarter of 2010. 10 of them are members of the Department of National Accounts within the Statistics Institute, and the 11th is the president of the National Statistics Institute, Vergil Voineagu.
The GDP progression in the first quarter, which is published today by the Statistics Institute as a preliminary figure, pending further revision depending on data emerging in the future, is eagerly expected by almost the entire Romanian economy, but most of all by politicians. Both President Traian Băsescu and Prime Minister Emil Boc announced there was a chance of the economy recording growth in the first quarter of 2011 against the fourth quarter of 2010.
The announcement will be made today at 9:00 a.m. to 300 journalists through an email sent to them by the so-called Data Dissemination Service within the Statistics Institute, with journalists under embargo, i.e. not allowed to publish the data until 10:00. The calculations are completed 24 hours ahead at the latest, but sometimes the latest necessary data can come as late as two hours before the index is sent to the press, explain representatives of the institute.
The date of the GDP release is eagerly awaited: if there is an even 0.1% rise, the government will say the economy is out of recession. Technically, two consecutive quarters of GDP decline indicate that an economy is in recession, which is what happened with the Romanian economy in the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009. The reverse is not true, i.e. two quarters of growth do not amount to an exit from recession, but media and public expectations have been created around this, so the indicator will firstly have psychological importance, which
