The IMF says the probability of recession returning to Romania this year is very low and expects economic results will confirm the return of growth.
In the last two years, the macroeconomic forecasts of the IMF, the NBR and the Government have not come true, so people are less willing to trust such forecasts.
"We can see clear signs of economic recovery and that growth is returning," Jeffrey Franks, chief of the IMF negotiating mission, said at the end of the first review of the new loan arrangement, under which money is to be drawn only if the crisis returns.
Although industrial production has been on a steady rise and exports are reaching historic highs, the low consumption is driving the economy down. But consumption will in turn rise, says the IMF. Franks has commended the "fiscal performance" and the fact that the deficit has been kept within the agreed limits. But the big challenge comes next year, when the government will have to continue to cut the deficit towards 3% of GDP, i.e. 3.5-4.5 billion euros from 4.4% of GDP this year. This deficit level is achieved by cutting investments, not paying arrears to the private sector, and by cutting employees in the public sector.
The IMF says the probability of recession returning to Romania this year is very low and expects economic results will confirm the return of growth.
In the last two years, the macroeconomic forecasts of the IMF, the NBR and the Government have not come true, so people are less willing to trust such forecasts.
"We can see clear signs of economic recovery and that growth is returning," Jeffrey Franks, chief of the IMF negotiating mission, said at the end of the first review of the new loan arrangement, under which money is to be drawn only if the crisis returns.
Although industrial production has been on a steady rise and exports are reaching
