The economy will see moderate growth this year, no more than 1.5%, driven by industry and exports and will only reach its peak growth potential, 5 or 6% as late as 2012, according to Mihai Tanasescu, Romania's representative to the International Monetary Fund.
"I am optimistic, but how we'll recover what we lost over the past year and how fast we'll manage to achieve the 5 or 6% growth economic growth potential that Romania has is up to us," Tanasescu told an economic seminar. He believes Romania needs a new economic growth model and can no longer rely on foreign debt to avoid reverting to the same problems that caused the recession in the first place.
Radu Craciun, chief investment officer of Eureko Pensii, also sees the need for a radical change of how the Romanian economy has been managed, considering the time of cheap money from abroad is gone. "Romania's performance is pitiful because it failed to take advantage of the European Union funds and with money no longer that cheap this is a crime," he says.
The analysts attending the seminar organised by Finmedia unanimously agreed that the economy would slightly rebound this year with industry as its main growth driver.
"We will see a slight economic growth, which will come from industry, whose performance was one of the best in the European Union. November figures show the industrial output is only 2% lower than the pre-crisis level," says Ionut Dumitru, Raiffeisen's chief economist.
Florin Pogonaru, chairman of the Business People Association of Romania (AOAR) says the industry is indeed beginning to rebound, which will fuel export growth since there is not enough domestic demand.
"2010 is a year that starts badly and ends well. We will see some dramatic changes of the landscape around us because the euro zone needs to be rebuilt institution-wise," Pogonaru believes.
Economis
