The euro officially crossed the psychological threshold of 4 RON in the first day of trading of the year, for the first time since November 2004, and the way now looks paved for new increases.
Those that took loans in foreign currencies over the past few years when the RON was on its way up, are now getting bad news, because the instalment repayment effort will be much greater.
NBR calculated an exchange rate of 4.0296 RON/EUR yesterday, 4.44 bani
(1 RON equals 100 bani) more than the level published in the last day of 2008.
The current level is but one step away from the all-time high of 4.14 RON reached at the beginning of 2004.
Analysts are pessimistic and do not rule out a new all-time high for the exchange rate, with most forecasts, however, being capped at 4.2 RON/EUR.
"I don't think we'll see the euro at five RON this year. I expect the euro to be above 4 RON on average in 2009 and the first half will be the most hectic period in this regard. It also depends on how the international markets receive the steps taken by the Government," says Lucian Anghel, BCR's chief economist.
He points out that the Polish zloty, a currency the RON has been correlated with over the last few years, has witnessed even more serious declines, so that we can expect new increases of the euro on the Romanian market, as well.
According to the exchange rates calculated by the European Central Bank, the euro traded at 4.13 zlotys in Poland, while quotes in Bucharest went up to 4.04 RON/EUR.
In their recently published surveys, Raiffeisen and ING also indicate an increase of the euro to 4.2 RON in the first half, pointing out, though, the risk of this level being exceeded, as well.
The effects of the euro increase against the RON over the quality of the credit portfolios started to show as early as last year.
Lending in fo
